According to growth figures analysed by The Huffington Post, craft beer production could outstrip mainstream beer production in America by 2030.
The assumption is based on recent growth a decline figures that have been compared to come to this startling conclusion.
With some pretty handy Excel-created graphs, Huff Post has shown that if the mainstream market continues to decline at its current rate – approximately nine per cent – and craft beer continued to grown at it’s current astronomical rate – 15 per cent by volume and 17 per cent by value – then between 2030 and 2050, the two areas of the market are on a collision course.
Currently in the American market, the two big brewers – Anheuser-Busch and MillerCoors – control something like 74 per cent of the marketplace, while the craft beer sector is estimated at between six and nine per cent.
This, of course, raises interesting questions about the future of the Australian beer market. In a recent article for Beer & Brewer, craft beer experts like Chuck Hahn floated the idea that the craft beer market share could hit five per cent by 2020. So given that Australia is approximately 10 years behind the American beer revolution, the Australian – and even the Kiwi – beer industry could be headed in the same direction.
While this is just a thought experiment – one based on figures that the authors fully admit are extremely dodgy – it does create a lot of space for discussion in the industry. And with the number of new breweries increasing almost weekly, hand-in-hand with the huge upswing in interest in craft beers, the industry might just be looking at a brave new world in the next 40 years.